According to USA TODAY, inflation was indeed higher in May, though it showed signs of more stability than initially predicted. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is the go-to measure for tracking average changes in goods and services costs, reported a 2.4% increase in consumer prices from 2024. However, looking at the month-over-month picture, costs increased by a smaller margin, just 0.1%, which was actually less than projected.
Despite the nuances in the official data, the impact on consumers feels quite real. Shoppers are expressing frustration, particularly feeling a lack of clear communication from grocers about how things like tariffs might be affecting the prices they pay. A recent survey conducted by research firm The Feedback Group this spring surveyed around 1,000 respondents, and they gave the level of communication on this topic a low average score of just 2.5 on a scale of 1 to 5.
To get a clearer picture of what’s happening on grocery shelves, we took a deep dive into prices right here in Rochester, New York. Visiting four different grocery stores on June 10—Wegmans Food Markets, Tops Friendly Markets, ALDI, and Walmart Supercenter—we comparison shopped for a range of common items. We looked at the full listed prices, the ones you see before any loyalty card discounts, to understand the baseline costs.
Exploring the dairy aisle, we found quite a range for a dozen Grade A large eggs. ALDI and Walmart offered them for $2.96, while Wegmans priced their Grade AA large at $3.19. Tops came in highest for their Grade AA large eggs at $3.99. Milk prices also varied across the stores we checked. A gallon of 2% Friendly Farms milk at ALDI was $2.67. Walmart’s Great Value brand milk, available in all varieties, was $2.72. Wegmans’ own brand, also covering all varieties, was $2.99, and Tops’ brand reached $4.04.
Moving on to pantry staples, a loaf of giant white bread from ALDI’s L’oven Fresh brand and Wegmans’ own brand were both priced at $1.39. Walmart’s Great Value brand was just slightly higher at $1.42, while Tops’ brand was $1.79. Fresh produce also showed price differences. Bananas per pound were cheapest at ALDI at 52 cents, followed closely by Wegmans at 53 cents and Walmart at 54 cents. Tops had the highest price per pound for bananas at 59 cents.
Avocado prices showed the most dramatic variation among the produce we checked. Walmart sold them for 88 cents apiece, ALDI for 89 cents, and Wegmans for 99 cents. Tops priced avocados significantly higher at $2.49 apiece. For a sweet treat, 1.5 quarts of ice cream ranged from $2.95 for ALDI’s Sundae Shoppe to $2.97 for Walmart’s Great Value, $3.99 for Wegmans’ brand, and $4.29 at Tops.
Baking sugar in 4-lb. bags had a narrower spread but still showed differences: ALDI’s Baker’s Corner was $3.29, Walmart’s Great Value was $3.46, Wegmans’ brand was $3.59, and Tops’ brand was $3.99. Protein prices also demonstrated variation. One pound of 80% lean ground beef was $4.69 at ALDI, $5.99 at both Wegmans and Tops, and $6.53 at Walmart.
Even a six-pack of beer showed differing costs, although we noted that ALDI doesn’t carry the popular Modelo Especial, substituting it with Holland 1839 at $7.99. Walmart sold Modelo Especial for $10.32, Wegmans for $10.99, and Tops for $11.49. These snapshot prices certainly highlight how much costs can differ just within one metropolitan area.
Beyond the immediate grocery bill, consumers are feeling the pinch in other areas as well, and trade policies, particularly tariffs, are frequently mentioned as a contributing factor. Walmart, one of the nation’s largest retailers, recently made waves by announcing that prices would have to rise, explicitly citing the tariffs being implemented by President Donald Trump. This move by Walmart sets a significant benchmark.
Retail analysts note that Walmart’s public statement about raising prices and attributing it to tariffs provides “air cover” for other retailers. Mark Cohen, a former director of retail studies and current professor at Columbia Business School, explained that Walmart is giving smaller and larger retailers alike space to comfortably adjust their own prices upwards, as they are all grappling with the same issue. While other businesses are likely to follow suit, many might not be as public about blaming tariffs.
Consumers can expect Walmart’s prices to continue to rise through June, with increases starting by the end of May. And it’s not just Walmart; many other companies have signaled plans to raise prices this year in response to the tariffs, particularly since President Trump’s announcement on April 2nd of a 10% baseline tariff on imports from most countries (excluding Canada and Mexico) and additional “reciprocal” tariffs.
The situation is indeed fluid, with changes like the tariff rate on China shifting (currently 30%, down from 145%, after a trade deal that didn’t restore a tax exemption for small parcels). Autos are another major area impacted, with a 25% tariff on car imports, although exemptions were later made for Mexico and Canada. Economists have noted that Trump’s tariffs and the general uncertainty surrounding his trade policy could prompt companies to raise prices on their goods.
Several prominent companies have already warned of or implemented price increases. Macy’s, in its May 28th Q1 earnings report, reduced its earnings outlook partly due to higher tariffs and moderating consumer spending, stating they would raise prices “selectively” and “surgically” on certain items. CEO Tony Spring mentioned higher “pricing is working its way into the system slowly,” while COO/CFO Adrian Mitchell confirmed they weren’t raising prices broadly but making “selective price increases in selective brands and selective categories.”
Chinese retailers Shein and Temu, both major beneficiaries of the de minimis trade loophole that allowed small parcels under $800 to enter the US tax-free (a loophole targeted by the administration), released near-identical notices on April 16th. They announced price adjustments starting April 25th, citing increased operating expenses due to “recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs.” They offered US customers eight final days of low prices before the changes.
The automotive sector is also feeling the heat. Bloomberg reported that Ford planned price increases on new gas and electric cars starting in May unless tariff relief was provided. A memo to dealers indicated the anticipation of “vehicle pricing adjustments.” Volkswagen’s North America chief executive, Kjell Gruner, stated the carmaker would keep prices steady through May, but increases could come in June in response to the 25% car import tariff, noting they would place an import fee on vehicles made outside the US.
Food companies are not exempt. Conagra Brands CEO Sean Connolly told Reuters on April 3rd that the company, which makes products like Hunt’s ketchup and Chef Boyardee, might need to hike prices to offset tariff costs on ingredients such as cocoa, olive oil, palm oil, and the steel used for cans. While uncertain about the exact scale, he stressed during an earnings call that the trade situation remained “volatile” and changed hourly, implying potential price changes were linked to this volatility.
Electronics and home goods retailers are also preparing. Best Buy CEO Corie Barry noted in March that the consumer electronics supply chain is highly global and complex, and they expected vendors to pass along tariff costs, making “price increases for American consumers highly likely.” Target CEO Brian Cornell specifically mentioned in a March interview that tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada could lead to price increases on produce, stating, “The consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days.”
Manufacturing companies like Stanley Black & Decker are evaluating their options. CEO Donald Allan said in February that their approach to tariffs would be to offset impacts with “a mix of supply chain and pricing actions,” which might see price increases enter the market, potentially with a delay. Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle voiced concern about tariff imposition, noting that while adept at managing them, “trade wars are not good and not easy to win,” and the company was “set to raise prices,” finding it “very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans.” Auto parts retailer AutoZone, according to CEO Philip Daniele in September, planned to “pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” generally raising prices ahead of time.
Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble (P&G), behind brands like Tide and Charmin, is also considering price hikes. CEO Jon Moeller called price hikes “likely,” and CFO Andre Schulten stated they would “pull every lever we have in our arsenal to mitigate the impact of tariffs,” evaluating pricing plans “by brand, by market.” Even luxury items are seeing increases. Ferrari, the Italian luxury carmaker, announced in March a potential price hike of up to 10% on certain models imported to the US starting April 2nd, directly linking it to information about new import tariffs. Hermès, known for its luxury goods, hadn’t felt the tariff impact yet in April, but executive Eric du Halgouët stated they would raise prices in the US in May specifically to offset the tariff increase, noting it would only apply to the American market.
Even our leisure and hobbies could cost more. Nintendo stated that while their upcoming Switch 2 console wouldn’t see a tariff-related price hike, accessories would experience “price adjustments… due to changes in market conditions,” with other product price adjustments possible in the future depending on conditions. They even delayed Switch 2 preorders amid the tariff situation. Camera makers Nikon, Canon, and Leica are also raising prices. Nikon announced a “necessary price adjustment” effective June 23rd “due to the recent tariffs,” saying they’d monitor developments. Canon said they’d raise prices but were still estimating timing and amount. Leica’s increases took effect May 1st, with an executive stating it was “not a Leica-initiated price increase, but a result of the newly enacted tariffs… which are significantly impacting the cost of imported goods.”
As we navigate this economic landscape, it’s clear that rising prices aren’t just abstract numbers in a report; they translate into tangible impacts on household budgets across the country. From the cost of your morning cereal to the tires on your car, the effects are being felt. The interplay between inflation, trade policies like tariffs, corporate decisions, and consumer purchasing power is a complex puzzle, and for many, the pieces are adding up to higher costs and tighter budgets. As retailers adjust and consumers adapt, the future trajectory of prices remains a key point of focus for families watching every dollar. Will the storm pass quickly, or are these higher costs becoming the new normal? Only time and policy developments will tell, but for now, budgeting carefully and being aware of where your money is going feels more important than ever.
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