Overnight on August 12, Israeli planes and tanks maintained a relentless bombardment of the eastern areas of Gaza City. Witnesses and medics reported at least 11 fatalities, as the Palestinian militant group Hamas’s leader, Khalil Al-Hayya, prepared to arrive in Cairo for crucial talks aimed at resurrecting a United States-backed ceasefire plan. This intensification of military operations unfolded against a backdrop of diplomatic deadlock and an escalating humanitarian catastrophe, casting a long shadow over the prospects for peace in the war-torn enclave.
The latest round of indirect negotiations, held in Qatar, had collapsed in late July. Both Israel and Hamas engaged in mutual recriminations, each blaming the other for the lack of progress on an American proposal that envisioned a 60-day truce coupled with a significant release of hostages.
Following the collapse of those talks, Israel declared its intention to launch a new offensive. This planned military incursion aims to seize control of Gaza City, a strategic area it had briefly captured shortly after the conflict erupted in October 2023, before withdrawing. Since then, militant factions have regrouped, engaging largely in guerrilla-style warfare across the devastated urban landscape.
The precise nature and duration of this renewed Israeli military incursion into Gaza City, now largely reduced to rubble, remain unclear. It is also uncertain how this operation would differentiate itself from the initial campaign that began in October 2023. This strategic ambiguity contributes to widespread apprehension regarding its potential impact.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broader plan to expand military control over Gaza, reportedly slated for October, has intensified global condemnation. This international outcry stems from the pervasive devastation inflicted upon the territory and the deepening hunger crisis now afflicting Gaza’s largely displaced population, which exceeds two million.
Domestically, the plan has also drawn criticism within Israel. The military chief of staff has reportedly issued warnings that such an expansion could imperil the lives of surviving hostages and potentially become a death trap for Israeli soldiers. Such concerns underscore the complex and perilous nature of the proposed escalation.
The humanitarian implications are particularly grave, with fears mounting over further displacement and hardship for the estimated one million Palestinians residing in Gaza City and its surrounding areas. The ongoing conflict has systematically eroded the fabric of daily life, leaving a population struggling for survival amidst pervasive instability.
Witness accounts and medical reports detail the severe impact of the overnight bombardments. In the Zeitoun suburb of Gaza City, Israeli planes and tanks reportedly struck two houses, resulting in seven deaths. Concurrently, an apartment building in the city center was hit, killing four more people, painting a grim picture of widespread urban destruction.
Tragedy also struck in the southern reaches of the enclave. An Israeli air strike on a house in Khan Younis claimed five lives, including a couple and their child. In the nearby tent encampment of Mawasi, another strike resulted in the deaths of four individuals, highlighting the indiscriminate nature of the ongoing hostilities and the vulnerability of displaced communities.
The health crisis in Gaza is further compounded by the grim specter of starvation. The territory’s Health Ministry reported that five additional people, including two children, succumbed to starvation and malnutrition in a single 24-hour period. These latest deaths bring the total number of fatalities from these causes to 227, with 103 of them being children, since the onset of the war.
It is important to note that Israel disputes these malnutrition fatality figures. The discrepancy in reported casualties and humanitarian conditions underscores the contentious nature of information emanating from the conflict zone and the challenges in verifying comprehensive data amidst ongoing hostilities.
The war itself commenced on October 7, 2023, following an unprecedented cross-border assault by Hamas-led militants into southern Israel. This attack resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people and the abduction of 251 hostages, marking what Israel has described as its worst security lapse in history. This event initiated the current devastating conflict.
Israel’s subsequent ground and air campaign against Hamas in Gaza has had catastrophic consequences. More than 61,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, 2023, according to figures provided by the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza. Other figures also indicate similarly high tolls, with one report stating over 57,000 Palestinians killed, more than half of whom are women and children, while another notes that the death toll has reached 40,000 people since October. The ministry, however, does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its overall count, though the United Nations and other international organizations widely regard its figures as the most reliable statistics on war casualties.
Beyond the staggering death toll, the Israeli offensive has left vast swathes of the enclave in ruins, precipitating a dire humanitarian disaster. Gaza now faces severe shortages of essential resources, including food, drinking water, and safe shelter, exacerbating the suffering of its beleaguered population.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose far-right ultra-nationalist coalition allies advocate for an outright Israeli takeover and resettlement of Gaza, has repeatedly affirmed his resolve. He has vowed that “the war will not end until Hamas is eradicated.” His stated objectives include the complete “elimination of Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities” and ensuring that “Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel.”
Netanyahu’s commitment to these objectives has been reiterated consistently. He stated, “This means that we will not allow a situation where there will be more hostages, more murders, more beheadings, more invasions. This means one thing: the elimination of Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities. Hamas will not be there.” He further affirmed his dedication to “all three missions: the release and return of all our hostages, both living and dead, the elimination of Hamas’ capabilities — to remove it from there, and to ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel.”
Despite the formidable obstacles, a Palestinian official privy to the ceasefire discussions indicated Hamas’s willingness to return to the negotiating table. However, significant disparities persist between the two sides on critical issues, casting doubt on the immediate prospects for a breakthrough. These include the extent of any Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza and demands for Hamas to disarm, a condition the group has unequivocally rejected prior to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Mediators, including Egypt and Qatar, remain committed to reviving the stalled negotiations, according to an Arab diplomat. The diplomat suggested that Israel’s public announcement of its new Gaza City offensive plan might not be a mere bluff but rather a calculated maneuver designed to compel Hamas back to the negotiating table, thereby serving a strategic diplomatic purpose.
Against a backdrop of continued deadly Israeli attacks, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a possible ceasefire in Gaza were reportedly set to resume on Sunday in Doha. These renewed efforts signal a persistent, albeit precarious, commitment to de-escalation amidst ongoing violence.
Hospital officials reported that Israeli airstrikes resulted in the deaths of at least 38 Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, coinciding with the resumption of talks. In the same period, Israel’s military stated it had struck over 100 targets across the embattled enclave, highlighting the continued intensity of military operations even as diplomatic efforts proceeded.
Mohammed Abu Selmia, director of Shifa Hospital, confirmed that 20 people were killed and 25 wounded after strikes impacted two houses in Gaza City. In southern Gaza, officials at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis stated that 18 Palestinians were killed by strikes in Muwasi, a coastal area where many displaced individuals reside in tents. Two families were among those reported dead, underscoring the severe toll on civilians.
The Israeli military provided no immediate comment on these individual strikes. However, it confirmed having struck 130 targets across the Gaza Strip within the preceding 24 hours. These strikes, according to the military, were aimed at Hamas command and control structures, storage facilities, weapons depots, and launchers, asserting that they had also resulted in the deaths of a number of militants in northern Gaza.
The escalation of strikes occurred even as efforts to forge a ceasefire deal appeared to gain momentum over the weekend. This juxtaposition of military action and diplomatic overtures highlights the complex and often contradictory dynamics shaping the conflict.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed that his government dispatched a negotiating team to the talks in Qatar on Sunday to engage in indirect discussions. However, Netanyahu was quoted as stating that Hamas was demanding “unacceptable” changes to the US-led proposal, indicating persistent challenges to a final agreement.
The scheduled talks in Qatar preceded Netanyahu’s planned visit on Monday to Washington, where he was slated to meet President Trump to discuss the proposed deal. The timing of these diplomatic engagements underscores the high stakes involved and the international pressure to achieve a resolution. It remained unclear if an agreement would be reached before Netanyahu’s White House meeting.
Mr. Trump has put forth a plan for an initial 60-day ceasefire. This proposal would entail a partial release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for an increased flow of humanitarian supplies into Gaza. The proposed truce also calls for subsequent talks aimed at bringing a total end to the 21-month war.
Hamas has, for its part, sought assurances that the initial truce would ultimately lead to a comprehensive cessation of hostilities and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Previous negotiations have frequently stalled over these fundamental demands from Hamas, while Netanyahu has consistently insisted on Israel retaining the capacity to resume fighting to achieve his stated goal of destroying the militant group.
Ceasefire efforts gained renewed urgency as mediators engaged in a “last-ditch effort” to revive stalled negotiations. High-stakes discussions concluded on Friday in Doha, against a backdrop of regional tension and desperation, particularly concerning a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Participants in the Thursday meeting included prominent figures such as CIA director Bill Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Jassim Al Thani, and Egyptian intelligence head Abbas Kamel. Their presence underscored the critical importance of these discussions.
In the meeting, Qatar, Egypt, and the United States were reportedly expected to present a plan for implementing a deal proposed by US President Joe Biden in May. This deal aimed to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza and secure the release of remaining Israeli hostages. However, unresolved differences have continued to obscure the path forward.
Mediators presented a “bridging proposal” to both Israel and Hamas, designed to close the remaining gaps of disagreement, as stated in a joint statement issued on Friday by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. The statement, published by the Egyptian presidency and Qatari foreign ministry, affirmed that the proposal “builds on the areas of agreement over the past week” and “bridges remaining gaps in a manner that allows for a swift implementation of the deal,” describing the talks as “serious and constructive.”
Despite the positive framing of the joint statement, it did not elaborate on the specific points of agreement achieved during the preceding week. While Hamas had previously stated it would not participate directly in talks, it engaged separately with Qatari and Egyptian mediators. A source indicated that mediators continue to work towards bridging the remaining key differences.
Basem Naim, a member of the Hamas political bureau, reiterated the group’s stance, stating, “Our position was clear… we will not go for new negotiation rounds. We will only go to implement what has been agreed on.” On Thursday, the militant group further emphasized that there would be “no hostage deal or ceasefire agreement without a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.”
President Biden’s three-phase proposal, presented in May, outlined a comprehensive framework. The first phase, lasting six weeks, would involve the “withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza” and the “release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners,” alongside a temporary truce.
Phase two would see the “exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers,” and a permanent cessation of fighting. Finally, phase three would initiate a “major reconstruction plan for Gaza” and ensure the return of “any final remains of hostages who’ve been killed” to their families.
Since the October 7 attacks, in which over 1,200 Israelis were killed and 250 taken hostage, tedious negotiations have been ongoing. Officials from Qatar and Egypt have served as intermediaries, facilitating shuttle diplomacy between Israeli and Hamas representatives, who do not meet in the same location. Technical teams have regularly traveled to Doha and Cairo to iron out potential agreement details.
Despite initial positive reactions from both Hamas and Israel, the parties have failed to agree on the finer details of the proposal’s implementation. Sticking points include the sequencing of the hostage-prisoner exchange, the exact number of Palestinian prisoners to be released, and the precise extent of Israeli forces’ withdrawal in Gaza. Other key remaining points of contention for Hamas include Israeli restrictions on the movement of people from southern Gaza to the north, Israel’s demand for a veto over which Palestinian prisoners would be released, and its continued military presence at the Philadelphi corridor and the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced accusations of undermining the deal, largely due to threats from far-right members of his ruling coalition who have vowed to collapse the government if a deal is reached. This internal political pressure exists despite significant external pressure from the United States and families of hostages, who have implored Netanyahu to secure an agreement.
Last month, the prime minister reportedly reversed a key Israeli concession in ceasefire negotiations, demanding that armed men be barred from returning to northern Gaza during an eventual ceasefire, a position that contradicted a previous agreement to allow Palestinians unrestricted access to northern Gaza. Netanyahu’s office, however, denied claims that the prime minister had changed positions, asserting that his most recent stance “does not introduce extra conditions and certainly does not contradict or undermine” the May proposal, instead accusing Hamas of adding unrealistic demands.
The killing of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran in late July, which Iran blamed on Israel, raised concerns that it would disrupt negotiations. Haniyeh, considered a relatively moderate, was replaced by Yahya Sinwar, the hardline Hamas leader in Gaza. While one of Hamas’s top officials reportedly acknowledged “some difficulties” and delays in communicating with Sinwar, the group later denied facing communication challenges with its leader.
This latest round of ceasefire talks gained significant urgency, propelled by major diplomatic efforts from Qatar, Egypt, and the US, particularly as Iran reportedly prepared to attack Israel. The three mediators issued a rare joint statement urging the warring parties to return to negotiations and offering what they termed a “final bridge proposal,” though its details were not made public.
In parallel, US and Middle East diplomats have been actively working to dissuade Iran from launching an attack on Israel that could precipitate a wider regional conflict. Both Iran and the US have affirmed that channels of communication remain open through intermediaries, suggesting a concerted effort to prevent escalation.
While some indications suggested Iran might abandon plans to attack Israel if a ceasefire deal were reached, Iran’s mission to the United Nations clarified on Saturday that Tehran’s retaliation is “totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire.” As of Tuesday afternoon, US officials reportedly did not believe Iran had decided on a course of retaliatory action, with furious diplomatic backchannel efforts continuing to deter a wide-scale attack and de-escalate the volatile situation. One US official noted that the Biden administration believes its public warnings have influenced Iran’s calculations.
President Biden acknowledged the challenges facing a ceasefire deal on Tuesday, telling reporters he was “concerned” about negotiations amid the looming threat of an Iranian attack. When asked about pressure on Israel and Hamas, he humorously deflected, stating, “If I told you what pressure that I’m putting on it, it wouldn’t be very much pressure, would it?”
A regional diplomat voiced concern that Iran might not hold back from striking Israel, expressing a belief that the Biden administration is not exerting sufficient pressure on Netanyahu to reach an agreement. This source suggested that the lack of clarity regarding whether the Israeli prime minister would adhere to Biden’s May proposal indicates time is rapidly running out to secure a deal before an Iranian attack, and that Qatar and Egypt might lack the necessary influence to compel Hamas to compromise.
New details of the ceasefire proposal emerged on Sunday, as Israel dispatched a negotiating team to Qatar ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s White House visit. The document outlines a 60-day ceasefire during which Hamas would release 10 living and 18 dead hostages. Israeli forces would withdraw to a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with Israel and Egypt, and significant amounts of aid would be delivered. The aid is specified to be distributed by United Nations agencies and the Palestinian Red Crescent, although Israel has expressed a desire for the American organization, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, to replace the U.N.-coordinated system.
The proposal, confirmed by multiple sources familiar with the sensitive talks, also stipulated that Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli facilities would be released in exchange for the hostages, with the exact number yet to be agreed upon. Crucially, the document stops short of guaranteeing a permanent end to the war, a key condition demanded by Hamas, but states that negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would take place during the 60-day period. It also contains a unique provision: “President (Donald) Trump guarantees Israel’s adherence” to halting military operations, adding that Trump “will personally announce the ceasefire agreement.” This personal guarantee by Trump appears to be an attempt to reassure Hamas that Israel would not unilaterally resume fighting, as it did in March during a previous ceasefire when talks to extend it stalled. Trump had stated last week that Israel had agreed on terms for a 60-day ceasefire, though it was unclear if these were the terms outlined in the newly reviewed document. Hamas has requested unspecified changes to the proposal.
Separately, an Israeli official, speaking anonymously, stated that the security Cabinet had approved sending aid into northern Gaza on Saturday, an area where civilians face acute food shortages. Northern Gaza has received only a trickle of aid since Israel ended the latest ceasefire in March. The closest distribution site for the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is located near the Netzarim corridor, south of Gaza City, which divides the territory’s north and south.
In related developments, Israeli Minister Israel Katz reportedly told members of the Israeli parliament’s foreign affairs committee on Monday, “We have not been this close to an agreement on the hostages since the previous deal,” referencing the November 2023 exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners. However, Katz subsequently posted on X, outlining his clear position on Gaza: “After we defeat Hamas’s military and governmental power in Gaza, Israel will have security control over Gaza with full freedom of action,” drawing a comparison to the situation in the occupied West Bank. He further asserted, “We will not allow any terrorist activity against Israeli communities and Israeli citizens from Gaza. We will not allow a return to the reality of before 7 October.” Such declarations, while seen as vital for securing the support of far-right Israeli cabinet ministers, who have warned against what they deem a “reckless” deal, are likely to be viewed as problematic by negotiators striving to bridge gaps with Hamas.
A Palestinian official detailed a three-phase plan closely mirroring President Biden’s May 31 proposal. The first 45 days would see the release of civilians and women soldiers held hostage, with Israeli forces withdrawing from city centers, the coastal road, and the strategic land strip along the Egyptian border. This phase would also include a mechanism for displaced Gazans to return to the northern part of the territory. A second stage would involve the release of remaining hostages and further troop withdrawals, preceding a third stage dedicated to ending the war entirely. Of the 96 hostages still held in Gaza, Israel assumes 62 are still alive. A round of talks in mid-October failed to produce a deal, as Hamas rejected a short-term ceasefire proposal.
Further reports from December 7 indicate that Israel ceased aircraft movement and drone surveillance over the territory for six hours at the request of mediators, allowing Hamas to gather information about the hostages. A pro-Qatari newspaper reported that Hamas subsequently provided Egyptian intelligence officials with a list of sick and elderly Israeli hostages, as well as those with US citizenship, alongside the names of Palestinian prisoners demanded by the group as part of a potential deal.
At the outset of the war in Gaza, Israel articulated its pledge to dismantle Hamas’s governing and military capabilities. According to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health, whose figures are widely regarded as reliable by the UN and other international organizations, over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed since this pledge was made. The overwhelming majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million population has been displaced, and the enclave has suffered widespread destruction. Amidst an ongoing struggle to deliver aid to those in need, the region is now grappling with mass hunger.
Developments in US politics have also injected new dynamics into diplomatic efforts. Donald Trump’s victory in November’s US presidential election has reportedly given a fresh impetus to these initiatives. At a news conference on Monday, Trump reiterated a warning that a ceasefire deal should be reached before he assumes office, cautioning that otherwise, “it’s not going to be pleasant.”
Concerns over the negotiations’ stability persist. Palestinian officials familiar with the details of discussions in Qatar have indicated that talks for a new Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal are on the brink of collapse. One senior official reportedly told the BBC that Israel had “bought time” during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington and intentionally stalled the process by sending a delegation to Doha that lacked the real authority to make decisions on key contentious issues, including the withdrawal of Israeli troops and humanitarian aid distribution.
Prior to his departure from the US on Thursday, Netanyahu maintained a positive outlook, expressing hope of completing an agreement “in a few days.” He specified that the proposed deal would entail Hamas releasing half of the 20 living hostages and just over half of the 30 deceased hostages during a 60-day truce period.
Since the preceding Sunday, Israeli and Hamas negotiators have engaged in eight rounds of indirect “proximity” talks, conducted in separate buildings in Doha. These discussions have been facilitated by Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, senior Egyptian intelligence officials, and attended by US envoy Brett McGurk. Mediators have conveyed dozens of verbal and written messages between the Hamas and Israeli delegations, which have included military, security, and political officials.
However, Palestinian officials familiar with the negotiations informed the BBC on Friday night that the talks were indeed on the verge of collapse, citing deep divisions between the two sides on several contentious issues. The most recent discussions had reportedly centered on two primary concerns: the mechanism for delivering humanitarian aid in Gaza and the extent of the Israeli military withdrawal.
Hamas has insisted that humanitarian assistance must enter Gaza and be distributed exclusively through United Nations agencies and international relief organizations. Conversely, Israel has advocated for aid distribution via the controversial Israeli- and US-backed mechanism operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. While some limited progress on bridging this divide has reportedly been achieved by mediators, no formal agreement has yet been reached.
The second major sticking point revolves around the scope of the Israeli withdrawal. During the fifth round of talks, Israeli negotiators reportedly presented mediators with a written message indicating that Israel would maintain a limited “buffer zone” inside Gaza, measuring between 1km and 1.5km deep. Hamas, according to a Palestinian official who attended at least two rounds of talks, initially viewed this proposal as a potential basis for compromise.
However, when Hamas requested and received a map delineating Israel’s proposed withdrawal zones, the document reportedly contradicted the earlier message, illustrating significantly deeper military positions. The map was said to indicate buffer zones extending up to 3km deep in certain areas and confirmed a continued Israeli presence in vast swathes of territory, encompassing all of the southern city of Rafah, 85% of the village of Khuzaa east of Khan Younis, substantial parts of the northern towns of Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun, and eastern neighborhoods of Gaza City, such as Tuffah, Shejaiya, and Zeitoun.
Hamas officials perceived this map as a “bad-faith manoeuvre” by Israel, further eroding the already fragile trust between the parties. Palestinian officials accused the Israeli delegation of deliberately stalling to create a favorable diplomatic backdrop for the Israeli prime minister’s recent visit to Washington. One senior Palestinian negotiator explicitly stated, “They were never serious about these talks.” This official further alleged, “They used these rounds to buy time and project a false image of progress.”
Furthermore, the official claimed that Israel was pursuing a long-term strategy of forced displacement under the guise of humanitarian planning. They alleged that Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s plan to relocate Palestinians to a “humanitarian city” in Rafah was part of a broader effort to permanently displace them. The official contended, “The goal of concentrating civilians near the Egyptian border is to pave the way for their expulsion either across the Rafah crossing into Egypt or out through the sea.”
On Monday, Minister Katz briefed Israeli reporters that he had instructed the military to prepare a plan for a new camp in Rafah that would initially house approximately 600,000 Palestinians, eventually accommodating the entire 2.1 million population. According to this plan, Palestinians would undergo security screening by Israeli forces before being permitted entry and would not be allowed to leave. Critics, both domestically and internationally, have denounced this proposal, with human rights groups, academics, and lawyers labeling it a blueprint for a “concentration camp.” The UN notes that 86% of Gaza is either within Israeli-militarized zones or covered by Israeli evacuation orders.
With the talks at such a critical juncture, the Palestinian side is urgently appealing to the United States to intervene more forcefully and exert pressure on Israel to make meaningful concessions. Mediators warn that without such decisive intervention, the Doha negotiations risk complete collapse, a scenario that would severely complicate regional efforts to achieve a durable ceasefire and avert a broader humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Diplomats in Doha acknowledge that a narrow window for compromise still exists, but emphasize the extreme fragility of the situation. As one regional official starkly put it, “This process is hanging by a thread.” The official added, “Unless something changes dramatically and quickly, we may be heading towards a breakdown.” The complexities of the conflict, the profound human suffering, and the elusive nature of a lasting resolution underscore the immense challenges facing all parties involved.
