As the NFL offseason churns with anticipation and the promise of a new campaign, the annual quest to predict the league’s movers and shakers intensifies. Every fan, analyst, and armchair GM scans the tea leaves, looking for that elusive edge in forecasting which teams will defy expectations and which will stumble. It’s a challenge fraught with peril, a delightful dance between hard data and informed intuition, and one that often leads to the most compelling narratives of the year.
Indeed, even the most seasoned prognosticators can be thrown for a loop, as history consistently reminds us. I’ve been tracking these trends for years, with a notable success rate in predicting teams likely to improve or decline. Yet, there are always those anomalies, the teams that either soar far beyond what the numbers suggest or stubbornly cling to their form against all odds. These are the teams truly ‘about to explode’ – not necessarily in the positive sense, but in the sense that their trajectory is ripe for a significant, often surprising, shift.
This season, we’re peeling back the layers on eight such franchises. We’ll delve into the underlying metrics, the personnel shifts, and the sheer unpredictability that makes NFL football the greatest show on turf. From past shockwaves that reshaped the league to current teams teetering on the brink of either a dramatic rise or an unexpected fall, prepare for an in-depth look at the squads poised to deliver the biggest surprises of the year.
1. **Philadelphia Eagles: The Unforeseen Ascent – A Blueprint for Explosion**Before we gaze into the crystal ball for the upcoming season, it’s worth reflecting on a team that spectacularly defied the odds just recently: the Philadelphia Eagles. In 2024, they were pegged by many, including this very column, as a team likely to decline from their 2023 mark of 11-6. Instead, they exploded, rocketing to a 14-3 record, blitzing through the NFC playoffs, and ultimately blowing out the Chiefs in Super Bowl LX. They represented a massive improvement in their underlying level of play, a true testament to how quickly a team’s fortunes can turn.
The Eagles’ success was not accidental; it was driven by better players and coaching, a fundamental shift that made the data from the previous season seem almost irrelevant. General manager Howie Roseman made moves that were nothing short of brilliant, securing two players in free agency – running back Saquon Barkley and linebacker Zack Baun – who went on to become first-team All-Pros. This kind of immediate, high-impact return from free-agent signings is exceedingly rare and spoke volumes about the team’s strategic acumen.
Furthermore, after cornerback was identified as a major problem in 2023, Roseman shrewdly used his first two draft picks on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. While rookie cornerbacks often struggle in their debut seasons, Mitchell and DeJean were instant stars. Their seamless integration transformed the Eagles’ defense from one of the league’s worst by EPA per play during their 2-2 start to the league’s best once DeJean entered the lineup in the slot, fundamentally altering the team’s defensive identity and capability.
Beyond player acquisitions, the Eagles also made strong upgrades at coordinator, bringing in Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore, both of whom proved excellent. Coupled with one of the league’s second-healthiest seasons by adjusted games lost, a stellar 7-2 record in one-score games, and the fifth-easiest schedule, it was a truly special campaign. The Eagles’ 2024 season serves as a powerful reminder that while data is helpful, it’s no match for a team adding multiple Pro Bowl-plus players and dramatically improving its play – a real ‘explosion’ that reshaped the Super Bowl landscape.
2. **Pittsburgh Steelers: The Stubborn Consistency – Defying the Decline**On the other side of the prediction coin from the Eagles, we find the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that seems to exist solely to confound expectations. While not an ‘explosion’ in the sense of a dramatic upward trajectory, their consistent defiance of negative predictions is a phenomenon unto itself. Last season, the Steelers were once again identified as a team likely to decline, yet they defied the odds once more, maintaining their 10-7 record. This wasn’t a fluke; they’re responsible for two of the eight times a team predicted to decline didn’t, and they came within one win of doing it a third time in 2022.
The Steelers’ ability to maintain a winning record, often with a roster that doesn’t scream ‘elite’ on paper, is a testament to their coaching, organizational stability, and a certain gritty resilience deeply embedded in their franchise DNA. They are not merely avoiding a decline; they are consistently outperforming their underlying metrics and what many might consider their talent level. This steadfastness in the face of statistical warnings makes them an intriguing case study in unpredictability.
Their sustained performance underscores a vital lesson: while statistical models and historical trends are powerful tools, they don’t account for every variable, especially the intangible qualities of a team that simply refuses to lose. The Steelers, year after year, find a way to navigate challenging schedules, overcome personnel deficiencies, and grind out victories, often in close contests. This isn’t an explosion of talent or play, but rather an explosion of sheer will and determination.
It’s this remarkable consistency that makes them unique. Unlike teams that yo-yo between greatness and mediocrity, the Steelers hover around competence, occasionally striking gold. They are a constant reminder that predicting NFL outcomes isn’t just about DVOA or point differential; it’s also about the enduring spirit of competition and the will to defy what seems inevitable. They were *not* on the decline list this year, a subtle nod to their persistent ability to defy analytical gravity.
3. **Kansas City Chiefs: The Perilous Path of Perfection – An Alarming Anomaly**Now, let’s turn our attention to a team that, despite its overwhelming success, stands on surprisingly shaky statistical ground for the upcoming season: the Kansas City Chiefs. Fresh off a 15-2 record in 2024, Andy Reid’s squad achieved an unprecedented feat by going 10-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points. While often attributed to ‘Mahomes magic’ or turning it on when it counts, an in-depth look reveals a statistical anomaly that screams unsustainability, placing them squarely on the list of teams secretly poised for a significant shift.
The Chiefs’ 2024 season was riddled with incredibly narrow escapes, moments where fate seemed to bend in their favor. Consider the season opener where a Lamar Jackson touchdown was nullified by a review finding Isaiah Likely out of bounds by ‘half of a toenail.’ The following week, they were bailed out by a 29-yard pass interference penalty on a fourth-and-16 against the Bengals. In Week 3, a controversial no-call on what looked like pass interference against Kyle Pitts saved them against the Falcons in the red zone. These weren’t just clutch plays; they were often razor-thin margins and opportune external events.
Throughout the season, the trend continued: an overtime victory against the Buccaneers after their coach elected to kick an extra point, a blocked field goal against the Broncos, two pass interference penalties aiding a Panthers drive before a Mahomes scramble saved the day, a bungled shotgun snap saving them against the Raiders, and a Matthew Wright field goal bouncing off the uprights and in to clinch a division title against the Chargers. While some might argue these are signs of a dominant team finding ways to win, the sheer volume and nature of these instances point to an impossible level of good fortune.
Underneath the sparkling 15-2 record, the Chiefs held the point differential of only a 10.2-win team, even removing their Week 18 loss where stars rested. Every other 14-plus win team since 1989 had a point differential of 100 points or more; Kansas City had a mere plus-59. Their 2024 season finished with the largest gap between their actual record and Pythagorean expected record of any team since 1989. History tells us that the 30 teams with the largest gap declined by an average of 3.2 wins the following season. While Mahomes is exceptional, repeating a 10-0 one-score game record is ‘impossibly unsustainable,’ making their 2025 season ripe for a statistical correction, regardless of their talent.
4. **Minnesota Vikings: The High-Wire Act of Turnover Luck – A Defensive Regression Warning**Following in the Chiefs’ footsteps as a team whose past success might mask future struggles, the Minnesota Vikings present a fascinating case study in defensive sustainability. While the 2022 Vikings were a clear candidate for decline, finishing 13-4 despite being outscored, the 2024 iteration was, on the surface, much better. They boasted a 14-3 record with the league’s seventh-best DVOA and played the ninth-toughest schedule. However, their reliance on an extraordinary turnover rate and an aging roster paints a picture of a team due for an adjustment, making them prime candidates for an unexpected ‘explosion’ – specifically, a regression to the mean.
The Vikings’ 2024 success was significantly bolstered by an 8-1 record in one-score games, a dramatic improvement from their 4-8 mark in the two seasons prior. While coach Kevin O’Connell is excellent, sustaining an 88% win rate in close games is highly improbable. But the more pressing concern lies with their defense. The unit led the league in turnovers with 33 and was second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives). While aggressive and entertaining, successful defenses built primarily around high turnover margins are notoriously difficult to maintain year-to-year.
Historical data reinforces this caution. Looking at teams from 2000 to 2023 that ranked in the top five in turnovers per drive, only 17% managed to finish in the top five again the following season, with their average rank dropping to 15th. This suggests that while Minnesota could still field an excellent defense, it’s highly unlikely they will lead the league in takeaways again. Such a significant drop-off in a key metric could dramatically impact their ability to close out games and mask other deficiencies.
Compounding this challenge is the aging profile of the Vikings’ roster. They were the league’s fifth-healthiest defense in 2024 by adjusted games lost and fielded the league’s oldest defense on a snap-weighted age basis. In fact, with the league’s fifth-oldest offense, they were the league’s oldest team overall on a play-by-play basis. While veteran experience can be valuable, it also brings concerns about declining performance and increased injury risk. Key veteran cornerbacks like Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin are gone, replaced by players who haven’t consistently performed at a high level elsewhere. Even their new defensive tackle acquisitions, Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, are on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injury-plagued seasons. Coupled with essentially a rookie quarterback in J.J. McCarthy taking over a 14-win team, the Vikings are a unique, high-stakes gamble poised for a potentially turbulent, or ‘explosive,’ season as they attempt to defy historical trends.” , “_words_section1”: “1948
5. **Washington Commanders: The Perilous Echoes of a Rollercoaster Season**The Washington Commanders, much like some of the teams discussed in the previous section, find themselves in a precarious position for the upcoming season, having been earmarked for potential decline despite a remarkable turnaround in 2024. This team orchestrated one of the most significant single-season leaps in recent NFL history, rocketing from a mere four wins in 2023 to an impressive twelve wins last season. Their unexpected playoff run, which included victories over the Buccaneers and Lions, ultimately fizzled in the NFC Championship against the Eagles, yet their surge was undeniable. Much of this success stemmed from a dramatic improvement in turnover margin, flipping from a dismal minus-14 in 2023 to a plus-one, primarily by drastically reducing their offensive giveaways.
However, the Commanders’ path bears striking resemblances to the 2023 Texans, a team that also saw its rebuild accelerated by a talented young quarterback and a veteran-laden roster. While the Texans continued to win their division in 2024, they experienced a stagnation, with offseason improvements failing to fully click and an over-reliance on their young signal-caller to salvage plays. Washington, too, fielded the league’s seventh-oldest team last season by snap-weighted age, despite the breakout performances of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and cornerback Mike Sainristil. General manager Adam Peters effectively plugged roster holes with a bevy of veteran free agents, a strategy that yielded immediate results with impact players like Dante Fowler Jr., Jeremy Chinn, Frankie Luvu, and Tyler Biadasz.
Yet, this reliance on veteran talent, some of whom are now gone or in their mid-30s like linebacker Bobby Wagner (35) and tight end Zach Ertz (34), presents a substantial challenge to long-term sustainability. Furthermore, Peters’ aggressive trades to acquire veterans, while showing a clear intent to win now, came at a cost to the Commanders’ future. Deals for cornerback Marshon Lattimore, offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, and wideout Deebo Samuel significantly depleted their draft capital, leaving Washington with just three top-200 picks in April’s draft. This strategic choice means the roster lacks a significant influx of young, developing players poised for a breakout in 2025, which could hinder their ability to sustain high-level performance as older players potentially regress or face increased injury risk.
Compounding these personnel challenges, the Commanders also benefited from exceptional health luck in 2024, ranking as the league’s fifth-healthiest team by adjusted games lost, with both their offense and defense among the top six healthiest units. This advantageous health profile is notoriously difficult to replicate year after year and provided a crucial foundation for their success. The team’s offensive line, a critical component, also faces uncertainty with Sam Cosmi, Washington’s best lineman for much of 2024, having suffered a torn ACL in the postseason. His unclear status for the start of the season adds another layer of vulnerability to a unit that needs to protect its dynamic young quarterback.
The most compelling argument for a Commanders’ regression, however, lies in their extraordinary fortune in one-score games, evidenced by an 8-2 record in these tight contests. This record doesn’t even fully capture the sheer volume of improbable escapes, including a Hail Mary against the Bears, a dropped fourth-down pass from Malik Nabers that saved them against the Giants, or a missed 56-yard field goal in overtime against the Falcons. Even Jayden Daniels’ late-game heroics, while undeniably devastating, often came after lucky breaks from opposing teams, like DeVonta Smith’s crucial dropped pass that allowed Washington to march downfield for a game-winning touchdown against the Eagles. While Daniels is exceptional in clutch situations, the sheer volume and nature of these fortuitous moments suggest a significant statistical correction is almost inevitable, making it tough to envision him having as many opportunities, or capitalizing on them with the same improbable consistency, in the upcoming season.
6. **Kansas City Chiefs: Reigniting the Deep Ball Offense**After dissecting the Chiefs’ unsustainable win-loss record in Section 1, we now pivot to an entirely different, yet equally compelling, aspect of their upcoming season: the potential for an offensive explosion. While last season saw Kansas City navigate an unprecedented 10-0 record in one-score games, their offense, particularly the deep passing game, was surprisingly muted, a stark contrast to the dynamic, high-flying attacks of previous years. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes himself articulated a clear mandate during offseason workouts, declaring, “Our job is to test the defenses down the field and we have to get back to doing that if we want to open up other guys underneath.” This statement, coupled with Coach Andy Reid’s challenge, echoes sentiments from previous offseasons, highlighting a persistent organizational goal to reclaim their freewheeling, vertical attack.
Indeed, the 2024 campaign saw a significant reduction in the Chiefs’ downfield prowess. Just two years after leading the NFL with 73 completions of 20-plus yards, Kansas City tallied a mere 42 such plays, ranking among the league’s lowest. This decline was largely attributed to a confluence of factors, including the long-term absences of key receivers like Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown due to injuries early in the season, which severely limited their options. This forced the offense into a more methodical, less explosive approach, fundamentally altering their offensive identity. Mahomes’ average air yards per attempt consequently dipped to a career-low 6.3, a stark indicator of the compressed field and diminished vertical threat that plagued the unit.
A significant part of the challenge has historically been the consistent deployment of two-high safety shells by opposing defenses, a strategy explicitly designed to take away deep passes and force Mahomes into more patient, underneath throws. However, beyond sophisticated defensive schemes, the Chiefs’ injury-riddled receiving corps last season struggled profoundly to create consistent separation against tight coverage, and their offensive line experienced critical breakdowns that hampered deep play development. This season, however, offers a fresh slate with significant personnel changes and a renewed focus on the vertical game.
The anticipated return of Rashee Rice, even if delayed by a potential suspension, and the acquisition of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown are expected to provide a much-needed boost in talent and speed. Rice excels in underneath work, offering a reliable target, while Worthy, a first-round pick, possesses the raw, game-breaking speed to be a true deep threat. His ability to improve on his 10.8 yards per catch average could have a significant ripple effect across the entire unit, stretching defenses thin. Additionally, a visibly “trimmer Travis Kelce” is aiming to be more dynamic and productive, seeking to rebound from a career-low 8.5 yards per catch last fall, further enhancing the tight end’s pivotal role in the offense.
Perhaps the most critical factor in facilitating this offensive resurgence lies in the trenches. The Chiefs have made substantial investments to fortify Mahomes’ blindside protection, signing Jaylon Moore to a two-year, $30 million contract and drafting Josh Simmons in the first round at left tackle. With Joe Thuney’s departure, the left guard spot will be a key battleground between Mike Caliendo and Kingsley Suamataia, who previously struggled as a starting left tackle before being benched. Ensuring Mahomes has ample time to survey the field and unleash his potent deep ball will be paramount. If the offensive line holds up, and the revitalized receiving corps delivers, the Chiefs are poised to once again become the explosive, shot-taking offense that has defined their dynasty, leaving little doubt about their intent to push the ball downfield whenever the opportunity arises.
7. **Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson’s Blueprint for Explosive Plays**The Chicago Bears are poised for a significant offensive ‘explosion’ this season, largely fueled by the arrival of first-year coach Ben Johnson, whose offensive philosophy is unequivocally centered around generating big plays and attacking defenses. Johnson’s candid remarks about the “Tush Push” — Philadelphia’s signature short-yardage quarterback sneak — provide a telling insight into his strategic mindset: “Man, I tell you what, does it become an explosive play ever? Have you ever seen a Tush Push become an explosive play? I like explosive plays. I like big plays. So I’m not a big Tush Push guy myself.” This commitment to dynamism is a stark contrast to a Bears offense that finished last in yards per game (284.6) in 2024, a unit desperate for a dramatic jolt.
Johnson’s impressive track record as the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator for the past three years speaks volumes about his capabilities. During his tenure, his units consistently ranked in the top five for both yards and points, showcasing a remarkable ability to craft and execute high-powered offensive schemes. This culminated in a dominant 2024 season where the Lions led the NFL in scoring, tying a league record by hitting 40 points or more in six games. Crucially for Chicago’s ambitions, Detroit also led the NFL with 18 touchdowns of at least 20 yards, directly demonstrating Johnson’s emphasis on and success in creating explosive plays.
It is little wonder, then, that Johnson was such a highly sought-after commodity, drawing considerable interest to a team desperately trying to ignite quarterback Caleb Williams’ debut campaign. Williams’ rookie season was unfortunately marred by systemic breakdowns and incessant pressure, leading to the Bears’ offensive struggles. Johnson has emphasized that while he will carry over his inherent aggressiveness and focus on taxing defenses in a variety of manners, he will meticulously cater his schemes to the Bears’ specific personnel landscape. Despite the challenges that hampered the team in 2024, there is a clear and tangible sense of big-play potential brewing, thanks to Williams’ “singular creativity,” an overhauled offensive line, and a receiving corps that appears on the verge of a breakout.
Still, for Chicago, there’s a clear “walk-before-you-run” element, especially for a team that was derailed by incessant pressure last season. With Johnson having declared how highly he prizes Expected Points Added (EPA) in the passing game, his tolerance for “drive-killing sacks” will be exceptionally low. The complete remaking of the interior offensive line might go a long way toward resolving the front’s most pressing shortcomings, but larger systemic changes are undoubtedly due after Williams took a league-high 68 sacks. While there’s been plenty of questioning about how Williams would jibe with Johnson in a system that often calls for the quarterback to stay on schedule, expectations are that the signal-caller will get rid of the ball more quickly and significantly boost his checkdown rate, improving from a league-low 7.1% in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.
Once the foundational elements of protection and timely ball distribution are solidified, the Bears’ offense could truly unlock its potential, and the big plays could come in waves. Johnson excels at throwing defenses off balance through creative formations, motions, and play-action concepts to create big gains both through the air and on the ground. The Bears’ increasingly talented skill-position players, including the burgeoning receiving corps, are well-positioned to capitalize on run-after-catch opportunities that are sure to come with Johnson’s scheme. The synergy of an improved line, Johnson’s innovative play-calling, and Williams’ raw talent promises a thrilling offensive transformation, potentially turning the Bears into a force capable of delivering big plays in waves and crashing the postseason party.
8. **Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Unlocking the Deep Game for Maximum Impact**The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, despite fielding one of the league’s most efficient offenses last season — ranking fourth in scoring with 29.5 points per game and fifth in expected points added per play — are actively seeking an additional, crucial dimension to their attack: explosive deep shots. Under first-year coordinator Josh Grizzard, who previously served as their pass game coordinator, the Buccaneers demonstrated remarkable efficiency in the underneath areas, consistently moving the chains and keeping defenses off balance. Quarterback Baker Mayfield achieved career highs with a 71.4% completion rate and a 106.8 passer rating, accumulating an impressive 4,500 yards and 41 touchdown passes, proving particularly deadly in generating yards after catch (YAC). Even with slot target Chris Godwin sidelined by a season-ending ankle injury in Week 7, Tampa Bay ranked second in the league with 3,830 YAC, a testament to their execution in short and intermediate routes.
However, despite this impressive efficiency, the deep passing game remained an untapped well for Tampa Bay, which notably ranked 29th in average air yards per attempt (6.8). This compressed aerial attack manifested in statistical lows for perennial deep threat Mike Evans, whose yards per reception (13.6) and average depth of target (11.58) dipped significantly, marking career-lows in these categories. While Evans’ overall efficiency remarkably remained robust, as he tied for sixth in the NFL with 2.8 yards per route run, the team’s inability to consistently stretch the field allowed opposing defenses to play tighter coverage, denying explosive opportunities over the top and potentially limiting the ceiling of their otherwise potent offense.
The explicit goal for this season, as clearly articulated by quarterback Baker Mayfield, is to rectify this shortcoming and infuse the offense with more vertical dynamism. “We’re trying to get some more explosive (plays) in,” Mayfield told reporters in June, acknowledging the statistical reality that “we weren’t as much down-the-field explosive.” This focus on expanding the playbook to include more vertical threats aims to alleviate the pressure on their highly successful underneath game by forcing defenses to respect the entire field. By threatening deep, the Buccaneers aim to create more space for their intermediate routes and YAC opportunities, fundamentally diversifying their attack.
The return of a healthy Chris Godwin, a versatile receiver who consistently creates separation across formations, will be a crucial asset in this endeavor. His ability to operate effectively from the slot and outside will open up more possibilities. Adding to this offensive firepower is first-round receiver Emeka Egbuka, whose presence alongside Godwin and Evans is expected to give the Buccaneers a much stronger and more diverse arsenal for challenging defenses both vertically and horizontally. This injection of talent, especially a fresh, dynamic pass-catcher, promises to unlock new wrinkles in Grizzard’s playbook.
As Mike Evans, who turns 32 in August, continues to defy age with his remarkably consistent production and elite contested-catch ability, providing him with more downfield targets and complementary threats will only enhance his impact. With a renewed commitment to unlocking the deep game and a more complete, talented receiving corps, Tampa Bay is strategically positioning itself to become an even more formidable and explosive offensive unit. This shift promises to transform their already efficient attack into one capable of devastating big plays that can alter the trajectory of games and elevate their status in the league.
From the high-stakes gamble of the Commanders relying on a young star amidst an aging roster and a regression to the mean in luck, to the tantalizing prospects of offensive rebirths in Kansas City, Chicago, and Tampa Bay, the upcoming NFL season promises a whirlwind of surprises. These eight teams, in their distinct ways, are on the cusp of significant shifts—be it a statistical correction or an outright explosion of talent and strategy. As the kickoff draws nearer, the narratives are set, the pieces are in place, and the gridiron awaits to reveal which of these poised franchises will truly defy expectations, reshaping the league’s landscape in the most exhilarating fashion.
