Picture the year 2100, and the busy streets of thousands of cities across the United States having subsided, leaving virtual ghost towns in their wake. More than half of American communities could see severe depopulation by the end of the century, according to a recent study published in Nature. This is not some form of a dystopian novel.
According to its findings, the population of almost 15,000 communities is declining down to minute quantities, a study led by Sybil Derrible, an urban engineer from the University of Illinois Chicago. The study was, initially and originally, designed to consider the assessment of transportation problems in Illinois, expanded on a national level, finding this trend operating only in Hawaii and Washington, D.C.
The researchers projected future trends based on data from the U.S. Census and the American Community Survey, tabulated from 2000 to 2020.
Their projections are startling: the populations of cities such as Cleveland, Ohio; Buffalo, N.Y.; and Pittsburgh, Pa., could shrink by 12 to 23 percent by 2100. Other cities not currently shrinking, such as Louisville, Ky.; New Haven, Conn.; and Syracuse, N.Y., would dwindle in the coming years.
It’s estimated that the Northeast and Midwest will be hit hardest, where over 80 percent of cities in Vermont and West Virginia will decline. The study also shows that while 43 percent of cities are currently losing residents, roughly 40 percent are growing, with the South and West most likely to see population gains.
These trends have their root in a myriad of complex factors: birth rates, state taxation, housing costs, industry loss, and even climate change. Justin Hollander, a Tufts University urban planning expert unaffiliated with the study, called its findings commendable but urged caution because of the unpredictability of a long-term forecast.
Despite these challenges, the authors view it as an opportunity for innovation when they rethink urban planning. “It’s an opportunity to be more creative,” Derrible says. Results of the study show that the adaptations which a local government has to do to respond to a change in the needs of its citizens have to be such that there are no disruptions in services: utilities and transit.
“The way we’re planning now is all based on growth, but close to half the cities in the U.S. are depopulating,” says Derrible, emphasizing that there needs to be a paradigm shift in the way urban planning is viewed. In this regard, one has to shift strategy from growth-based planning to those tactics which deal with problems that cities pose when they start shrinking.
The bottom line is that America’s metropolitan environment will see a sea of change in coming years. In essence, the report warns policymakers to look toward a future where adaptation, not expansion, would be the main agent of urban planning. While the full implications of this shift remain to be seen, one thing is for sure: if future cities are going to survive this depopulation catastrophe, it needs innovative solutions.
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Thousands of U.S. cities could become ghost towns by 2100
